Gov UK HPI shows property market treading water

The latest index shows that the average monthly rate of house price growth in August was +0.8%.

Average UK house price annual inflation was 3.0% in the 12 months to August 2025, down from the revised estimate of 3.2% in the 12 months to July 2025.

As a result, the average UK house price currently sits at £273,000.

Islay Robinson, CEO of Enness Global, said, “Today’s house price figures show that the market has continued to tread water with the annual rate of growth softening. This is largely due to a high level of hesitation among buyers, particularly those at the higher end of the market – with London feeling the pinch to the greatest extent as the only region to have seen a year on year reduction in property values.

This caution is understandable. With Labour under pressure to plug the hole left by its out-of-control spending, those purchasing at higher price thresholds fear they may find themselves in the crosshairs come the Autumn Budget.

This uncertainty has been a key factor behind a London market that continues to trail the rest of the UK in terms of price growth. Adjustments to inheritance tax, capital gains tax, and the non-domiciled regime have already dampened appetite among high-net-worth and international investors, while domestic buyers have faced a return to previous stamp duty thresholds.

Rumours of a tax shift toward a seller-side levy on homes valued at £500,000 or more are also cultivating uncertainty and until the dust settles on the Autumn Budget, the capital’s housing market is likely to remain subdued. However, with the latest figures today showing that inflation has unexpectedly held at 3.8%, many will now be looking to a potential base rate cut in December which should help boost the market following the Autumn Budget.”

Verona Frankish, CEO of Yopa, added,“On the face of it, today’s figures are encouraging with house prices continuing to climb on both a monthly and annual basis. This is despite the fact that the market often experiences a seasonal slowdown during the summer months, with August usually one of the quieter periods of the year.

Of course, it’s important to remember that whilst these Government figures provide the most concrete insight into market health, there is a delay in reporting them. It’s likely that this latest market insight doesn’t fully capture the ‘wait and see’ mentality that has begun to take hold as the Autumn Budget approaches.

What we’re currently seeing on the ground is that many buyers are pressing pause in the hope of stamp duty reform and this is naturally leading to a reduction in market activity. This means the true test of market momentum is happening now and the Autumn Budget could be a ‘make or break’ moment in this respect.”

Jonathan Samuels, CEO of Octane Capital, said,“Today’s house price figures paint a picture of ongoing stability and whilst the market hasn’t accelerated, it’s certainly not stuck in reverse either.

Of course, we would ideally like to see inflation easing, but today’s hold at 3.8% will come as welcome news, particularly given that it boosts the chances of a base rate cut over the coming months.

We’ve already seen improvements to the mortgage landscape as interest rates have largely trended downwards and this shift has already brought a renewed sense of optimism to the housing market.

That said, whilst the Autumn Budget isn’t expected to present a major bump in the road for the UK housing market, it’s certainly commanding the attention of the nation’s homebuyers and sellers at present. This distraction is likely to temper activity in the short term, which could cause the rate of house price growth to stutter before momentum resumes.”