It has been a long time coming, but Septemberโs data from the Land Registry captures the moment the oil tanker began to turn.
Months of pre-Budget jitters among buyers finally pushed down the average price paid for homes across most of Britain.
Every single English region except Yorkshire and the Humber saw prices tip into the red in September. Prices also fell by 0.8% in Wales compared to August, though they rose by 0.4% in Scotland.
For once the sharpest falls were not seen in London. The capital ceded that dubious honour to the South East and the North East, both of which saw average prices slide by 1.2% over the month.
On an annual basis, prices are still up everywhere except London. But the gains made earlier this year are being steadily eroded by falls in the prices being paid now.
Separate data shows that asking prices are being revised down as sellers adjust their expectations, and on the front line weโre seeing buyers negotiating significant discounts too – all of which is likely to drag prices down further in coming months.
While the Land Registry data gives a rear-view of the market, this is the clearest evidence yet of the chilling effect that Budget rumours and speculation have had on buyer sentiment
Those buyers who need to move have been pressing ahead but negotiating hard to de-risk themselves from any tax changes that may come in next weekโs Budget. Many have been rewarded by abundant choice and increasingly desperate sellers who are more likely to agree to big discounts.
Everyone else has been adopting a โwait and seeโ approach. It could be that the Budget is not the horror show that the market has expected, but the sheer number of rumours about tax increases for anyone buying, selling or living in a home in a high-value area suggests that some pain is coming.
Whether the market is left reeling or rejoicing next Wednesday is up to the Chancellor, and her speech could determine where prices go next.
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