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Latest delays could derail Crossrail property prices by a further £100k by 2021

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The latest research by leading estate agent comparison website, GetAgent.co.uk, has looked at the impact Crossrail has had on the property market surrounding stations due to benefit from the route and how delays to the project’s delivery could impact house prices going forward.

When construction first started on the project in May 2009, the average house price around areas due to benefit with a Crossrail station was £305,442. Over the next nine years, price growth along the route exploded by 95%, an increase of 0.8% for each of the 112 months, putting the new average property cost at £595,061.

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However, in September 2018 it was then announced that the delivery of the project would be delayed and in the months that followed to January 2019 (the latest data available), the average house price surrounding Crossrail stations has fallen by -3.1%.

That’s an average monthly drop of -0.8% for each of the four months with Bond Street, Tottenham Court Road and Woolwich worst hit with prices surrounding these stations down by more than 28%.

Last week it was announced that Crossrail is unlikely to open until 2021, and so this negative trend could remain for the next two years. Should the average monthly decrease of -0.8% persist over the next two years, it would see the average house price surrounding Crossrail stations fall from its current level of £576,340 to £475,290, a loss of £101,050 in property values.

Founder and CEO of GetAgent.co.uk, Colby Short said, “The turbulent ride for those living around stations due to benefit from Crossrail continues, as yet more delays are likely to see prices fall further.

“The Crossrail project is set to be a gamechanger when it comes to traversing the London landscape and the initial scramble to buy along the line brought some pretty meteoric house price increases. But as a consistent string of delays has set in, this urgency has seeped away and as a result, the high levels of house price growth have followed suit.

“Should this persist over the next two years, there could be a serious re-levelling of the Crossrail market. However, even if this were to ring true, the average Crossrail house price would still be some £170,00 more than when construction first started.

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“Those living along the line should rest assured that the long-term benefits of doing so will far outweigh the current inconvenience of yet another London transport link failing to run on time.

“When it does open, the Crossrail influence is certain to bring high-speed house price growth with it and some areas, such as Liverpool Street, Gidea Park, Twyford and more, are already bucking the wider trends of political uncertainty to register strong price growth at present.”

Time Period Months Original house price Total Change (%) Total Change (£) Average Monthly Change (%)
Start of Crossrail construction (01.05.09) 112 £305,442 95% £289,619 0.8%
First delays announced (01.09.18) £595,061
First delays announced (01.09.18)* 5 £595,061 -3.1% -£18,721 -0.8%
Now (01.01.19)* £576,340
Now (01.01.19) 24 £576,340 -17.5% -£101,050 -0.8%**
Suspected delays until 2021 (01.01.2021) £475,290**
* latest Land Registry house price data point available

**is the projected monthly loss on the average Crossrail house price between January 2019 and January 2021 (24 months at a monthly reduction of -0.8%)

 

Crossrail Station Outcode Average House Price – Crossrail Start (May 2009) <% Change> Average House Price – First delays announced (September 2018) <% Change> Now – January 2019
Liverpool Street EC2 £480,250 20% £576,714 54% £889,542
Gidea Park RM2 £344,889 27% £437,136 30% £570,420
Twyford RG10 £367,104 49% £545,255 30% £708,333
Hanwell W7 £275,850 99% £550,171 24% £681,286
Whitechapel E1 £316,008 78% £561,728 22% £687,400
Farringdon EC1 £439,300 47% £643,990 20% £773,235
Ealing Broadway W5 £430,074 91% £820,845 19% £976,646
Forest Gate E7 £181,923 133% £424,209 19% £503,375
West Ealing W13 £370,375 77% £653,813 14% £747,275
Acton Main Line W3 £352,840 57% £552,834 10% £607,800
West Drayton UB7 £178,538 104% £364,938 10% £400,998
Custom House E16 £224,526 108% £467,439 6% £494,800
Brentwood CM14 £233,640 76% £410,933 5% £431,357
Reading RG1 £199,088 48% £293,905 4% £306,633
Romford RM1 £192,268 72% £329,936 4% £343,669
Canary Wharf E14 £370,696 32% £490,943 3% £506,949
Maryland E15 £207,300 120% £455,757 3% £470,367
Stratford E15 £207,300 120% £455,757 3% £470,367
Ilford IG1 £227,842 73% £395,294 0% £396,278
Abbey Wood SE2 £181,667 81% £328,588 -1% £323,920
Manor Park E12 £155,357 145% £380,629 -2% £374,318
Taplow SL6 £325,326 60% £520,843 -4% £501,451
Maidenhead SL6 £325,326 60% £520,843 -4% £501,451
Hayes and Harlington UB3 £193,103 90% £367,780 -6% £346,132
Chadwell Heath RM6 £191,600 70% £325,680 -7% £304,134
Slough SL1 £233,499 50% £349,928 -8% £321,858
Burnham SL1 £233,499 50% £349,928 -8% £321,858
Goodmayes IG3 £213,018 102% £430,262 -10% £389,083
Seven Kings IG3 £213,018 102% £430,262 -10% £389,083
Harold Wood RM3 £179,179 97% £352,484 -10% £316,095
Paddington W2 £725,861 124% £1,622,487 -11% £1,448,076
Shenfield CM15 £251,382 116% £542,242 -11% £483,167
Southall UB2 £197,800 112% £420,197 -16% £354,000
Langley SL3 £225,809 104% £461,741 -16% £388,368
Iver SL0 £363,409 81% £658,975 -22% £515,083
Woolwich SE18 £222,586 100% £444,817 -28% £320,042
Tottenham Court Road W1 £787,768 197% £2,336,522 -29% £1,668,038
Bond Street W1 £787,768 197% £2,336,522 -29% £1,668,038
Average Crossrail House Prices £305,442 95% £595,061 -3.10% £576,340
*Heathrow terminal stations not  included due to lack of residential housing surrounding each station

** house price data pulled for station outcode to include property prices in the immediate surrounding area and not the area as whole




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