The latest research by leading estate agent comparison website, GetAgent.co.uk, has looked at the impact Crossrail has had on the property market surrounding stations due to benefit from the route and how delays to the project’s delivery could impact house prices going forward.
When construction first started on the project in May 2009, the average house price around areas due to benefit with a Crossrail station was £305,442. Over the next nine years, price growth along the route exploded by 95%, an increase of 0.8% for each of the 112 months, putting the new average property cost at £595,061.
However, in September 2018 it was then announced that the delivery of the project would be delayed and in the months that followed to January 2019 (the latest data available), the average house price surrounding Crossrail stations has fallen by -3.1%.
That’s an average monthly drop of -0.8% for each of the four months with Bond Street, Tottenham Court Road and Woolwich worst hit with prices surrounding these stations down by more than 28%.
Last week it was announced that Crossrail is unlikely to open until 2021, and so this negative trend could remain for the next two years. Should the average monthly decrease of -0.8% persist over the next two years, it would see the average house price surrounding Crossrail stations fall from its current level of £576,340 to £475,290, a loss of £101,050 in property values.
Founder and CEO of GetAgent.co.uk, Colby Short said, “The turbulent ride for those living around stations due to benefit from Crossrail continues, as yet more delays are likely to see prices fall further.
“The Crossrail project is set to be a gamechanger when it comes to traversing the London landscape and the initial scramble to buy along the line brought some pretty meteoric house price increases. But as a consistent string of delays has set in, this urgency has seeped away and as a result, the high levels of house price growth have followed suit.
“Should this persist over the next two years, there could be a serious re-levelling of the Crossrail market. However, even if this were to ring true, the average Crossrail house price would still be some £170,00 more than when construction first started.
“Those living along the line should rest assured that the long-term benefits of doing so will far outweigh the current inconvenience of yet another London transport link failing to run on time.
“When it does open, the Crossrail influence is certain to bring high-speed house price growth with it and some areas, such as Liverpool Street, Gidea Park, Twyford and more, are already bucking the wider trends of political uncertainty to register strong price growth at present.”
|Time Period||Months||Original house price||Total Change (%)||Total Change (£)||Average Monthly Change (%)|
|Start of Crossrail construction (01.05.09)||112||£305,442||95%||£289,619||0.8%|
|First delays announced (01.09.18)||£595,061|
|First delays announced (01.09.18)*||5||£595,061||-3.1%||-£18,721||-0.8%|
|Suspected delays until 2021 (01.01.2021)||£475,290**|
|* latest Land Registry house price data point available |
**is the projected monthly loss on the average Crossrail house price between January 2019 and January 2021 (24 months at a monthly reduction of -0.8%)
|Crossrail Station||Outcode||Average House Price – Crossrail Start (May 2009)||<% Change>||Average House Price – First delays announced (September 2018)||<% Change>||Now – January 2019|
|Acton Main Line||W3||£352,840||57%||£552,834||10%||£607,800|
|Hayes and Harlington||UB3||£193,103||90%||£367,780||-6%||£346,132|
|Tottenham Court Road||W1||£787,768||197%||£2,336,522||-29%||£1,668,038|
|Average Crossrail House Prices||£305,442||95%||£595,061||-3.10%||£576,340|
|*Heathrow terminal stations not included due to lack of residential housing surrounding each station |
** house price data pulled for station outcode to include property prices in the immediate surrounding area and not the area as whole