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Are rising temperatures affecting house prices?

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New research by national estate agent, Springbok Properties, has looked at the seasonal impact of the nation’s property market and if there is a connection between warmer weather and how much buyers are paying for a home.

Springbok Properties analysed sold price data from Land registry and looked at the difference in price achieved over the four seasons, how this breaks down by month and what impact rising temperatures have on the price buyers are paying for property.

It’s no secret that the warmer weather and longer evenings bring a spike in market activity but the seasonal changes also bring a higher average sold price. In winter last year the average sold price was £291,810, increasing to £293,347 as spring arrived. This then increased further to £301,321 over the summer season before falling to £289,833 during the autumn.

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When looking month to month this seasonal spike remains prevalent, but it would seem that the change in temperature also plays it part where house price growth is concerned.

The data shows a direct correlation with prices cooling between January and February as the average temperature also cools. Then between February and July consistent increases in the average monthly temperature also coincide with consistent increases in the average sold price of property. Then as the temperatures begin to cool from August through to December, so too does the average sold price.

When looking at the monetary impact, sold prices increased £2,150 for every one degree change in temperature. This was lower as they increased, with prices up £1,461 for every degree increase in warmth, increasing to a drop of £2,838 for every degree colder.

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Shepherd Ncube, founder and CEO of Springbok Properties said, “The seasonality of the national property market is widely discussed as patterns of buyer and seller behaviour dictate market activity and ultimately the price achieved. However, it seems that something as external to the property as temperature itself also has a direct correlation.

“With spring now officially sprung, we should start to see the Brexit price growth freeze thaw, but for those that remain sat on the fence until a higher degree of certainty returns to the market, holding out until summer could see them achieve that little bit extra as temperatures continue to rise.”




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